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The central theme we've been emphasizing for over a year is the shift of freight from third-party carriers to private fleets—a trend that has significantly extended the soft freight cycle, especially in an economy that has consistently exceeded expectations. However, according to the latest release of the *Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook* report, this trend may be coming to an end.
"Lower equipment supply, especially from private fleets, could be a key factor in a market shift in 2025," said Tim Denoyer, Vice President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research. "Additionally, an upcoming FMCSA regulation next month could potentially downgrade tens of thousands of CDL holders in states that haven’t previously been required to enforce the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. While it's hard to measure exactly, this change on November 18 could have two positive outcomes: improving road safety and pushing truckload rates higher."
*Aggregate DAT Load/Truck Ratio & Spot Rates*
The DAT load/truck ratio isn't a simple 1-to-10 scale—it can go well beyond 11. It hit the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018, and reached the high teens in 2021, peaking above 20. Our seasonally adjusted DAT load/truck ratio recently crossed 7 in early October, indicating that spot rates are likely to rise slightly in the near term.
"However, the equipment capacity rebalancing needed to push rates up in 2025 hasn't happened yet," Denoyer concluded.
**Freight Forecast Report Overview**
The monthly 58-page *Freight Forecast* from ACT provides in-depth analysis and projections for a wide range of U.S. freight metrics, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The report offers monthly, quarterly, and annual forecasts for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year horizon, covering capacity, volume, and rate trends. With detailed insights into the freight rate outlook, the *Freight Forecast* helps companies across the supply chain plan more effectively with greater visibility and reduced uncertainty.
**ACT Research Overview**
ACT Research is widely recognized as the leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North American and Chinese markets. Its analytical services are used by all major truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT Research contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. The company's executives have received numerous accolades, including appointments to the National Association for Business Economics and the National Private Truck Council, as well as the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over four years. ACT Research’s senior staff has also been named among the top forecasters by the Chicago Federal Reserve, the Wall Street Journal, and USA Today. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.