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The key theme we've been emphasizing for over a year now is the shift of freight from the for-hire market to private fleets—a trend that has significantly extended the soft freight cycle in an economy that has consistently exceeded expectations. However, this trend may be coming to an end, according to the latest edition of the *Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook* report.
“Lower equipment supply, especially from private fleets, could play a major role in a market reversal in 2025,†said Tim Denoyer, Vice President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research. “Additionally, an upcoming FMCSA regulation could potentially downgrade tens of thousands of CDL holders in states that haven’t previously been required to enforce the FMCSA’s Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. While it's hard to quantify the exact impact, the downgrade on November 18 could have two positive outcomes: improving road safety and pushing truckload rates higher.â€
The DAT load/truck ratio isn't a simple 1 to 10 scale—it can go well beyond 11. It hit the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018, and climbed into the high teens during 2021, peaking above 20. Our seasonally adjusted DAT load/truck ratio recently crossed 7 in early October, signaling that spot rates are likely to rise modestly in the short term.
“However, the equipment capacity rebalancing needed to push rates up in 2025 hasn’t fully taken place yet,†Denoyer concluded.
### Freight Forecast Report Overview
ACT’s monthly 58-page *Freight Forecast* offers comprehensive analysis and projections for a wide range of U.S. freight metrics, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The report delivers monthly, quarterly, and annual forecasts for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year horizon, covering capacity, volume, and pricing trends. With detailed insights into the freight rate outlook, the *Freight Forecast* helps companies across the supply chain plan more effectively with greater clarity and reduced uncertainty.
### About ACT Research
ACT Research is widely recognized as the leading provider of data, market analysis, and forecasts related to commercial vehicles, trailers, and buses in North America and China. Its analytical services are used by all major truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. Its executives have received numerous accolades, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over four years. ACT senior staff members have also been honored with distinctions such as the Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.