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The domestic polyethylene market will continue to continue

Despite the global high oil prices and the appreciation of the renminbi, as well as Sinopec's general sales growth and PetroChina's expansion, China's polyethylene industry continues to thrive in both production and sales. Equipment utilization rates have exceeded 100%, showing a strong upward trend. In 2006, China's polyethylene output, apparent consumption, imports, and exports reached 6.077 million tons, 10.92 million tons, 4.946 million tons, and 39,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3%, 3.3%, -7%, and 3.8%. Exports rose significantly while imports dropped, leading to a self-sufficiency rate of 55% and a 5.31% reduction in industry dependence. From 2007 to 2010, 11 new polyethylene plants are expected to come online in locations such as Dushanzi, Panjin, Daqing, Zhenhai, Tianjin, Fushun, and Chengdu. This will push domestic production capacity beyond 12 million tons per year, with output reaching 10 million tons annually. The self-sufficiency rate is projected to rise to around 80%. Production capacities for low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, and linear low-density polyethylene will reach 2.03 million, 4.67 million, and 5.11 million tons per year, respectively. China is set to become a major player in the global polyethylene market. At the China Polyethylene Market Symposium held in Dalian on August 26th, industry experts predicted that China’s polyethylene sector will enter a peak expansion phase, with supply capabilities growing significantly and demand remaining strong. As a general-purpose polymer, polyethylene has developed various types, including low-density, high-density, linear low-density, ultra-high-molecular-weight, and metallocene polyethylene. Its excellent properties make it one of the fastest-growing synthetic resin categories. Experts also noted that factors like crude oil and ethylene prices, supply and demand dynamics, and market conditions will shape the future of polyethylene. With new capacities coming online, supply is expected to grow by about 13% annually, reducing import dependency. Market volatility is expected to decline, and the industry is likely to see more stable pricing. Meanwhile, Sinopec and PetroChina are optimizing their structures, leading to better resource allocation and reduced internal competition. However, challenges remain. China faces increasing pressure from Middle Eastern and regional producers. Domestic production capacity, product quality, and technology still lag behind international standards. There is a heavy reliance on general-purpose materials, with fewer high-end, value-added products. Many high-strength polyethylene membranes and pipes are still imported, and the range of linear low-density polyethylene remains limited. The conference emphasized that the next few years offer a crucial opportunity for structural adjustment and enhanced competitiveness in China’s polyethylene industry. It called for stronger integration between products and markets, increased production scale, and the adoption of advanced foreign technologies. Efforts should focus on developing high-value resins, promoting lightweight and functional plastic products, and building independent intellectual property rights. At the same time, rising energy costs and intensified competition in downstream industries require companies to use futures markets effectively to manage price risks and support steady industry growth. A coordinated interaction between the spot and futures markets is essential for the healthy development of the polyethylene sector.

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