Market price differentiation of petrochemical products

According to the latest report from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the country's petroleum and chemical industries continued to show stable growth in November. However, the growth rates of several major bulk petrochemical products slowed down. Out of 65 tracked products, 57 saw year-on-year growth, representing 87.7%, while the product sales rate reached 99.3%. Despite this, there was a noticeable divergence in market prices. Basic chemical raw material prices rose sharply due to supply constraints, fertilizer prices rebounded strongly, and organic chemical product prices fell significantly across large regions. In November, the balance between supply and demand in the petrochemical sector remained relatively stable, with some easing in the refined oil market. Crude oil production stood at 15.314 million tons, up 1% year-on-year but down 3.1% month-on-month. Natural gas output increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 5.95 billion cubic meters. Refined oil production also grew steadily, reaching 16.54 million tons, with gasoline and diesel outputs rising by 4.7% and 6.1%, respectively. While some key petrochemical products saw their growth curbed—such as ethylene and pure benzene, which both declined compared to October—overall growth remained robust. Meanwhile, high-energy-consuming and overcapacity products like soda ash, calcium carbide, and caustic soda continued to see strong output increases. Fertilizer and pesticide production also surged, driven by export demand despite being off-peak season. With international crude oil prices continuing to rise, domestic energy costs are increasing, putting pressure on enterprise production costs. The ability of high oil prices to transmit through the downstream industrial chain is weakening, leading to greater market pressure. Overall, prices showed an upward trend, with 69% of the 174 tracked products experiencing price increases, while 31% saw declines, especially in organic chemicals. Some basic chemical raw materials faced tight supply, causing significant price hikes. Sulfuric acid prices jumped 64% year-on-year to 656 yuan per ton, while sulfur hit a historic high of 2,610 yuan, up 100.8%. Ethylene glycol also reached new highs at 14,300 yuan. These price spikes reflect strong macroeconomic momentum in China. Fertilizer prices generally increased, with urea showing a strong rebound. Urea prices rose to an average of 1,810 yuan in November, up 3.1% year-on-year. This was largely due to reduced global urea supplies, lower export tax rates, and rising input costs such as coal and natural gas. On the other hand, organic chemical product prices fell significantly. Among the 174 tracked products, 54 saw price drops, with 35 of them being organic chemicals. This decline indicates weaker transmission of high oil prices, shrinking corporate profits, and intensified market competition. Companies may need to adjust their product mixes to remain competitive in the coming months.

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