Driven by the intensive policy introduced in the second half of 2016, used cars have finally entered the “ten thousand years” that have been late for many years.

On February 7, the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the Distribution Association) released the 2016 second-hand car trading volume. NBD Auto (micro-signal: NBD-AUTO) learned that in 2016, the domestic second-hand car transaction volume exceeded 10 million vehicles for the first time, reaching 10.39 million vehicles, an increase of 10.33%.

“The arrival time of 10 million vehicles is later than we expected.” Xiao Zhengsan, secretary-general of the circulation association, told NBD Automotive that “this has both policy and market factors.”

In his view, the “restricted move” policy for used cars everywhere is an important reason for limiting the increase in the transaction volume of used cars. Since the second half of 2016, with the State Council's three-and-a-half-level application, the policy of restricting the use of used cars has been abolished successively, opening a green light for the second-half of the second-hand car trading volume.

To this end, the circulation association hopes to further expand the policy dividend. The NBD car learned that the circulation association is calling the relevant departments to reduce the used car transaction tax and establish a temporary property rights system for used cars. Luo Lei, deputy secretary general of the circulation association, told NBD that the relevant communication will have a result soon.

According to the circulation association forecast, the used car market will maintain a growth rate of 20% in 2017, and the used car transaction volume will reach more than 12.5 million. If the goal is reached, this will be the fastest growth rate of used car trading volume in the past five years.

However, even if policy changes are coming to the fore, problems at the market level still exist. According to the analysis, on the one hand, the challenge of second-hand car integrity management is still huge, and the industry standards are uneven. It has become an important issue to limit the transaction volume of used cars. On the other hand, the existing used car has a long life and the shortage of high-quality vehicles is also limited. The reason for this market breakthrough.

Policy promotes the use of used cars "ten million"

According to the statistics of the circulation association, the volume of used cars in 2016 reached an all-time high of 10.39 million.

In Xiao Zhengsan's view, 2016 is a year in which the used car policy has achieved a breakthrough. In March 2016, the State Council issued a number of "Opinions on Promoting Convenience Transactions of Used Cars", explicitly requiring all regions to cancel the "restriction" policy. Then in December, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Supervision of the Environmental Protection of Used Vehicles."

Under the policy promotion, from October to December 2016, the transaction volume of used cars in China was 895,000, 993,500 and 1,812,200, respectively, showing a trend of rising month by month. Xiao Zhengsan believes that this is not unrelated to the loosening of the “restricted move” policy.

NBD Motors learned that in the first half of 2016, the number of used cars in the country was 4.774 million, a year-on-year increase of only 3.6%. With the cancellation of the “restricted move” landing in the second half of the year, it reached 5.62 million units in the second half of the year, an increase of 16.7% year-on-year.

“The three policy factors that hinder the increase in the trading volume of used cars have already broken through one.” Xiao Zhengsan told NBD Auto, “This year we will strive for a breakthrough in the tax policy for used cars and promote the establishment of a temporary property rights system for used cars.”

According to the current policy, second-hand car transactions are subject to a 2% transaction tax, which Luo Lei believes makes it more difficult to make profits on second-hand car transactions with thin profits. Previously, the second-hand car market told NBD cars that the average profit margin of a single-car dealer's single car was around 3%, canceling the 2% transaction tax rate, which would greatly increase the profit share of used car dealers.

" Once the second-hand car temporary property rights system is established, it will speed up the used car trading process and speed up the trading time to reduce the transaction cost." Luo Lei told NBD that the breakthrough of these two systems in 2017 will greatly enhance the activity of the used car market. .

Based on the policy, the market can play an optimistic judgment on the market. According to the forecast of the circulation association, the trading volume of the used car market in 2017 is expected to reach 12.5 million units, a year-on-year growth rate of 20%.

The shortage of quality vehicles is still the biggest challenge. The realization time of the “10 million vehicles” target is one year later than the previous forecast of the circulation association. In addition to policy restrictions, the market challenges brought by car sources require time to crack.

“In the second-hand car transaction, the quality of the car source and the confidence of the consumer are the main problems.” A person in charge of the used car of Zhejiang Yuantong told NBD that “these are not issues that the policy can solve.”

According to the circulation association statistics, from the situation of used car transactions in December last year, vehicles with 3 to 6 years of vehicle age accounted for 48.89% of the vehicle source, accounting for the main proportion. In addition, the vehicle source of 7 to 10 years old accounted for 21.06%, and the age of vehicles over 10 years was 7.08%. The demand for second-hand car sources within 3 years of demand and transaction activity is only 22.97%.

"The quality of the car with a car age of less than 3 years is too tight, which will make the price difficult to come down. The price advantage of the new car is not obvious enough." The person in charge of the above-mentioned Yuantong used car told NBD.

According to the statistics of the circulation association, the number of vehicles with a transaction price below 30,000 yuan in the used car transaction accounted for the largest proportion of 41.52%, and the proportion between 30,000 and 50,000 yuan was 19.78%. The relatively low transaction price reflects the low quality of the vehicle.

In addition, the shoddy phenomenon in second-hand car transactions also makes consumers feel guilty about choosing used cars.

"I roughly estimate that the number of domestic second-hand car dealers is around 100,000." Luo Lei told NBD that under such market conditions, the establishment of a second-hand car credit system is imminent.

In the view of the above-mentioned car dealers, the establishment of the quality of the vehicle source and the integrity system is not a problem that can be solved by the policy. It is difficult to obtain an essential improvement in the short term; in the case of low transaction efficiency, the substantial growth of used cars is still challenging.

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