After the frantic boom of capital inflows, hidden concerns in the lithium power industry emerged.
Lithium battery pack Lithium battery pack

According to statistics from the reporter, in the first half of 2017, the profits of a number of power battery companies, including Fluoride, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and BYD , have declined. Apart from the effects of the new energy subsidy policy and product upgrades, Problems such as the overcapacity at the low end of the new energy field and the lack of high-end supply also began to appear.

Corporate revenue declines

According to the data, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 53,000 vehicles in August this year, an increase of 73% year-on-year and an increase of 22% from the previous month.

“This has brought a huge market for new energy vehicles,” said Wang Xueqiang, Secretary-General of the Waterma Innovation Alliance. “At the 2017 TEDA Forum held on September 8, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Technology Xin Guobin also officially released China’s new The timetable of the energy strategy, our node is 2030. According to the current development expectation, it is expected that China will complete the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles as early as 2030. "Reporter learned that as of the end of June this year, the country's vehicle ownership has reached 308 million vehicles.

However, behind the prosperity of the new energy auto industry, it is the collective shrinkage of the performance of the power battery companies. According to the 2017 mid-year report, Guoxuan Hi-tech’s profit dropped by 16.6%, gross profit margin decreased by 12.43%, fluoridol’s profit decreased by 39.69%, gross profit margin decreased by 21.41%, BYD profit decreased by 23.75%, gross profit margin decreased by 2.69%; As the profit of its subsidiary, CNAC Lithium, dropped, its profit dropped by 94.14%.

For the reasons for the decline in profits, several listed companies gave their answers in their 2017 mid-year report. According to Guoxuan Hi-tech's 2017 interim report, the company's profit decline in the first half of the year was due to the fact that the raw materials needed by the products were subject to certain price fluctuations due to the influence of the upstream market. In addition, Duo Duo Duo mentioned in the 2017 interim report that due to the impact of national industrial policy adjustments, the sharp decline in the total production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first quarter was also one of the reasons for the shrinking profits.

This reporter learned that on September 27th, domestic lithium cobaltate prices of 60% and 4.35V have risen to 391 yuan/kg, which has virtually increased the company's manufacturing costs.

At the same time, as the country pays more attention to new energy fields, many companies are still expanding production. Chengfei integrated staff told the reporter: “At present, the company has 1GWh of production capacity in Luoyang. After the first phase of Jiangsu project put into production, there will be 2.5GWh of capacity. The next two phases are under preparation. The preliminary planning is 5GWh of production capacity.” Lithium iron phosphate has a production capacity of 3.7 GWh and Sanyuan Lithium has a production capacity of 2 GWh. A production line of 1 GWh in Nanjing and Qingdao respectively is under construction.” Guo Xuan Hi-Tech staff told reporters.

The continuous influx of enterprises from some industries has also exacerbated competition in the new energy sector. On May 2nd, the innovative shares engaged in the production and processing of packaging boxes issued an announcement after being suspended for nearly three months. They planned to acquire Shanghai Enjie New Material Technology Co., Ltd. at a price of 5.55 billion yuan to enter into the lithium battery separator with excess capacity. industry. China National Hi-Tech Science and Technology Section reported that the power lithium battery technology gap is gradually narrowing, and the production threshold is gradually reduced. Domestic and foreign companies increase their production capacity under the influence of the hot market environment. The production capacity will be released this year and the competition in the power lithium battery industry will intensify. . According to the data, as of the first half of this year, the conservative estimation of the capacity expansion of the major enterprises in the industry was approximately 67GWh.

The adjustment of the subsidy policy is a good example. When talking about the decline in profits in the first half of this year, Chengfei's integrated staff focused on the adjustment of the subsidy policy: “In last December, the model catalog reiterated that the adjustment of state subsidies is mainly in the passenger car market, and our target group is exactly The passenger car in this area has had a greater impact on us. This is one of the important reasons for the decline in our profits in the first half of this year."

Overcapacity of structural overcapacity

The Ministry of Transport expects that by the end of this year, the total size of new energy vehicles in the transportation industry will exceed 300,000 vehicles, and the target of doubling by 2020 will be proposed.

Although the demand for domestic new energy vehicles is continuously increasing, the overcapacity of structural overcapacity in the field of new energy batteries has already emerged. Liao Zhenbo, vice president of BAK Group, once said that there are structural overcapacity in the field of power batteries in China, especially low-end products, and high-end products are scarce.

According to statistics, the power battery capacity in the first half of 2017 was 5.79GWh. "The lithium battery company's staff also expressed their own concerns, Chengfei integration staff told reporters:" Although each company's technology, although there are differences, but in fact there is little difference. With the continuous launch of new energy production capacity, it is estimated that there will be partial overcapacity in the future. ”

In fact, the country has already noticed this trend. On March 1st, four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Program") and the "Minimum Long Term Development Plan for the Automotive Industry" issued jointly by three ministries on April 25 (hereinafter referred to as "Planning"). Both of them mentioned that by 2020, the target specific energy of the power battery will reach 300Wh/kg or more. However, many companies currently do not achieve this goal very well. "We now have a newly developed battery with an energy density of 190Wh/kg, which is about 20% higher than our previous product," said a person in a listed company engaged in lithium production. This new product still has a big gap compared with 300Wh/kg.

At the beginning of the year when the Sanyuan battery was lifted, the power battery technology will gradually shift from the existing lithium iron phosphate to ternary materials. In fact, a consensus has basically been reached in the new energy automotive industry, lithium iron phosphate batteries for commercial vehicles, and three yuan battery for passenger cars. With the release of fuel vehicle bans, demand for the passenger car market will inevitably increase, and the Sanyuan power battery market is erupting. However, many lithium-ion battery companies still produce lithium iron phosphate.

“Sanyuan is still a new field compared with lithium iron phosphate, and it is still in the process of R&D, especially product consistency. The company currently has 2.25 GWh of lithium iron phosphate capacity and 1.25 GWh of ternary lithium capacity.” Chengfei integrated staff told reporters.

In addition, Tesla is currently the benchmarking company for new energy vehicles. Its main purchasing batteries include Panasonic Japan, South Korea's LG Chemicals, Samsung and SK. Compared with these companies, domestic companies still have large gaps in high-end products.

Fortunately, domestic companies also saw a gap with the strength of foreign companies. Cheng Fei integrated the relevant person to the reporter: “The domestic enterprises are still in the energy density and foreign first-class companies are still a gap, such as BYD these domestic companies doing better and foreign countries still have a gap.” And Guo Xuan Hi-Tech people It is believed that the gap between domestic companies and foreign mature companies is comprehensive. "Whether it is management or technology, there is not a small gap. Maybe we have some advantages in some single items, but after the products are assembled, the performance will not be better."

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